The NFL is set to kick off its 2024 season, and fans are eager to see how things will unfold with several new quarterbacks and team changes. One notable highlight is that Jayden Daniels, the reigning Heisman winner, will set a new NFL record when he takes his first snap for the Washington Commanders. Washington is starting its eighth different Week 1 quarterback in as many years. With this new addition, the Commanders are 3.5-point underdogs against Tampa Bay, according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds.
For those betting on the NFL this season, understanding key trends, player matchups, and expert predictions is crucial. Below, we break down important Week 1 NFL predictions, including insights from SportsLine’s advanced computer model, which has been consistently accurate since 2017.
Top Week 1 NFL Predictions
1. Chargers (-3) vs. Raiders
The Chargers are favored by three points at home, and Jim Harbaugh has taken over as their head coach. Harbaugh brings his winning mentality to a team led by star quarterback Justin Herbert. Although the Raiders finished the previous season 5-4 under interim coach Antonio Pierce, Harbaugh’s ability to quickly adapt and improve team culture should give the Chargers an edge. The model predicts the Chargers to cover the spread in over 60% of simulations.
2. Bills (-6.5) vs. Cardinals
Josh Allen remains one of the NFL’s most dominant players, having accounted for 174 touchdowns over the last four years. The Cardinals, led by Kyler Murray, have struggled, particularly in the passing game, ranking near the bottom in key metrics. With Arizona’s defense showing little improvement, the Bills are predicted to win by double digits, covering the spread in nearly 70% of simulations.
Fantasy Football Picks for Week 1
If you’re looking for last-minute fantasy football tips, here are five sleeper picks for players rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues:
- Rashid Shaheed, WR (New Orleans Saints) – With Michael Thomas out, Shaheed will see an increase in targets.
- Jaleel McLaughlin, RB (Denver Broncos) – Expect him to take over third-down duties with Samaje Perine gone.
- Tyler Conklin, TE (New York Jets) – Conklin is set to benefit from Aaron Rodgers’s passing game.
- Joshua Palmer, WR (Los Angeles Chargers) – With both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams out, Palmer should be a primary target.
- Matthew Stafford, QB (Los Angeles Rams) – In a high-scoring matchup, Stafford remains a valuable start.
Expert Betting Tips for Week 1
- Aaron Rodgers Under 224.5 Passing Yards (+115): Concerns about Rodgers’ Achilles injury and age may lead to a conservative passing game, making the under a solid bet.
- Gus Edwards Anytime TD (+130): Expect Edwards to play a major role in the Chargers run game, especially in red-zone situations.
Conclusion
With a new season underway, staying up-to-date with team trends and expert predictions is key to making informed NFL picks and bets. The Chargers and Bills are poised for strong performances, while sleeper fantasy players could give you the edge in your lineup.
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