Coronavirus is no doubt the black swan of 2020, prompting an unprecedented lockdown in China with knock-on effects to global supply chains now starting to emerge. At the same time, the number of international cases and disruptions to economic activity continue to rise.
Confidential information highlighting the Global effects of the new CORONAVIRUS Crisis, leaked from Goldman Sachs:
"Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1500 of their investee companies dialed in. The key takeaways were: - Over the next 6-8 weeks we are going to see a global health based and economic collapse. - 50% of Americans will contract it (150M people) - 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people) - Of those impacted 80% will be early stage, 15% mid stage and 5% critical stage. - Mortality rate of an average of 2% and hence do the math on the lives it will take in the above markets. It’s in millions... - Europe is pretty screwed and so is the US. Need both of them to effectively control the pandemic (like several Asian countries like Taiwan and Singapore) to ensure that the global economy does not collapse further. However they don’t seem well equipped at all. - China’s economy will be largely impacted and all exports, imports to and fro China will be hit impacting raw material and the global supply chain. - Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years under 2% - S&P 500’will see a negative growth rate of -15 to -20% - Stock markets will collapse only to hopefully recover in the 2nd half of the year - Social Distancing for the right period of time is the only way to control this and if it’s for too short a period there can be a relapse Really really depressing call."
From Monday, Goldman will begin moving some employees in all divisions and regions to disaster recovery sites. Others will be split into “blue and white” teams, which will alternate between working from one office location and home, weekly, from March 16.
In a memo to staff, Goldman said: “We have been preparing for this eventuality for some time, and we believe it is the right moment for us to take this decisive step to protect our people… the firm will operate across separate teams and locations, with the goal of reducing the density of people in our offices at any one time.”